It was 60 days ago when the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six games, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the force he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
